Chiefs vs Broncos — Week 17, 2025
The Chiefs took over trailing 20-13 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 13, Broncos 20. Broncos won 20-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chiefs ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 1:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.6% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 8.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Barron; 97-M.Roach).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 44 for 5 yards (49-A.Singleton; 97-M.Roach).
- (1:17) 29-K.Hunt left end to DEN 42 for 14 yards (23-J.Barron; 9-T.Hufanga). DEN-9-T.Hufanga was injured during the play.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 28 for 14 yards (23-J.Barron).
- (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun scrambles left tackle to DEN 21 for 7 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
- (:26) (No Huddle) 19-C.Oladokun spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:25) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep left to 87-T.Kelce [99-Z.Allen].
- (:20) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Brown.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.06 pts |
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Spike it | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.