Browns vs Titans — Week 14, 2025
The Browns took over trailing 31-23 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Browns 29, Titans 31. Titans won 31-29 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 20, 2:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.3% for Browns. Our model starts at 5.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 33 for 13 yards (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-53-J.Ward, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 33.
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left to 22-D.Sampson to TEN 45 for 7 yards (33-C.Gray).
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 84-G.Larvadain to TEN 46 for 4 yards (23-K.Winston; 26-M.Harris).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle to 22-D.Sampson to TEN 15 for 31 yards (37-A.Hooker).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 34-J.Ford pushed ob at TEN 14 for 1 yard (33-C.Gray). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Face Mask, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 14.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short left to 22-D.Sampson (23-K.Winston).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-Q.Judkins pass to 84-G.Larvadain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Curl route | +0.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.27 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.17 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Spike it | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.