Broncos vs Jets — Week 6, 2025
The Broncos took over leading 13-11 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 13, Jets 11. Broncos won 13-11 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 16, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.6% for Broncos. Our model starts at 69.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to DEN 19 for 3 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 11-J.Johnson).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 19-M.Mims up the middle to DEN 17 for -2 yards (21-B.Stephens, 95-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (95-Q.Williams), and recovers at DEN 17.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 11 for -6 yards (11-J.Johnson).
- (2:33) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 59 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 13 yards (6-P.Locke).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| QB keep | -0.85 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.15 pts |
| Play action | -1.18 pts |
| Curl route | -1.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.60 pts |
| End-around | -3.90 pts |
| Deep post | -4.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.