Bengals vs Browns — Week 1, 2025
The Bengals took over leading 17-16 with 2:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 17, Browns 16. Bengals won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 26, 2:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 70.4% for Bengals. Our model starts at 64.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 25 for -1 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at CIN 35 for 10 yards (0-G.Newsome).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 35 for no gain (30-D.Bush).
- (2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 2-D.Carter to CLE 33 for 12 yards (46-W.Wagner; 34-S.Perine).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.25 pts |
| QB keep | +0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.88 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.78 pts |
| Curl route | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Outside run | +0.42 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Play action | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.62 pts |
| End-around | -2.76 pts |
| Deep post | -3.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.