Falcons vs Rams — Week 17, 2025
The Falcons took over tied at 24 with 2:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 27, Rams 24. Falcons won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 35, 2:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 59.1% for Falcons. Our model starts at 62.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 7-B.Robinson [91-K.Turner].
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (26-K.Kinchens) [0-B.Young].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to LA 49 for 5 yards (8-J.Verse; 3-K.Curl).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to LA 45 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights).
- (:43) 7-B.Robinson left end pushed ob at LA 35 for 10 yards (3-K.Curl).
- (:38) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle to LA 34 for 1 yard (0-B.Young).
- (:35) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 34 for no gain (8-J.Verse; 95-P.Ford).
- (:30) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 33 for 1 yard (95-P.Ford; 91-K.Turner).
- (:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.55 pts |
| Curl route | +0.55 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.92 pts |
| Deep post | -2.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.