Falcons vs Jets — Week 13, 2025
The Falcons took over tied at 24 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 24, Jets 27. Jets won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 30, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.5% for Falcons. Our model starts at 60.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to ATL 31 for 1 yard (91-J.Briggs; 44-J.Sherwood).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle [9-W.McDonald].
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 7-B.Robinson to ATL 36 for 5 yards (36-J.Taylor). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Robinson (36-J.Taylor). NYJ-11-J.Johnson was injured during the play.
- (1:36) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.86 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.23 pts |
| Curl route | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.76 pts |
| Quick out | +0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.79 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.05 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Deep post | -1.90 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.