Seahawks vs Rams — Week 16, 2025
The Seahawks took over tied at 30 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 30, Rams 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 23, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.5% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 54.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left end to SEA 26 for 3 yards (30-J.Wallace).
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 29 for 3 yards (2-J.McCollough).
- (3:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.15 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.39 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.17 pts |
| Curl route | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.94 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Play action | -1.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.93 pts |
| Deep post | -4.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.