Texans vs Chargers — Week 17, 2025
The Texans took over leading 20-16 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Chargers 16. Texans won 20-16 — the drive time expired.
Texans ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 26, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.6% for Texans. Our model starts at 82.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) 63-J.Kingston reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 26 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe).
- (3:28) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to HOU 45 for 19 yards (3-D.James).
- (2:41) 27-W.Marks left guard to HOU 43 for -2 yards (99-J.Caldwell).
- (2:37) 27-W.Marks right end to HOU 46 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley; 92-J.Eboigbe).
- (2:27) 63-J.Kingston reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks right guard to LAC 41 for 8 yards (2-E.Molden).
- (2:00) 63-J.Kingston reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks up the middle to LAC 39 for 2 yards (2-E.Molden; 0-D.Henley).
- (1:16) 7-C.Stroud kneels to LAC 39 for no gain.
- (:35) 7-C.Stroud kneels to LAC 40 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Quick out | -0.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.53 pts |
| QB keep | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Curl route | -1.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.84 pts |
| End-around | -4.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.56 pts |
| Deep post | -6.51 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.