Cardinals vs Titans — Week 5, 2025
The Cardinals took over leading 21-19 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 21, Titans 22. Titans won 22-21 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 20, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 67.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 22-M.Carter left tackle to ARI 21 for 1 yard (33-C.Gray).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-G.Dortch to ARI 29 for 8 yards (69-S.Joseph).
- (3:13) 22-M.Carter left tackle to ARI 33 for 4 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (3:06) 22-M.Carter right tackle to ARI 35 for 2 yards (33-C.Gray; 69-S.Joseph).
- (3:00) 22-M.Carter right end to ARI 35 for no gain (90-S.Tuttle; 33-C.Gray).
- (2:12) 31-E.Demercado left end to ARI 35 for no gain (38-L.Sneed; 45-D.Jones).
- (2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.18 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.02 pts |
| Quick out | -0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Curl route | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Play action | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.12 pts |
| End-around | -3.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.63 pts |
| Deep post | -4.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.