Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 15, 2025
The Buccaneers took over leading 28-26 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 28, Falcons 29. Falcons won 29-28 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 27, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 72.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 33 for 6 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (2:45) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 34 for 1 yard (3-J.Bates).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 39 for 5 yards (20-D.Alford).
- (2:28) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 35 for -4 yards (90-D.Onyemata).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka.
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 35 for 0 yards (sack split by 11-J.Walker and 0-D.Deablo).
- (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to ATL 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (58-M.Watts).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.06 pts |
| Quick out | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Play action | -0.59 pts |
| Curl route | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.33 pts |
| End-around | -3.37 pts |
| Deep post | -4.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.