Patriots vs Bengals — Week 12, 2025
The Patriots took over leading 23-20 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 26, Bengals 20. Patriots won 26-20 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 40, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.5% for Patriots. Our model starts at 77.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right tackle to NE 49 for 9 yards (27-J.Battle).
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson left guard to CIN 49 for 2 yards (98-T.Slaton; 44-D.Knight).
- (3:08) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to 50 for -1 yards (44-D.Knight).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Hollins.
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 8-S.Diggs to CIN 36 for 14 yards (20-D.Turner).
- (2:51) 32-T.Henderson right guard to CIN 35 for 1 yard (22-G.Stone; 58-J.Ossai).
- (2:08) 32-T.Henderson right end to CIN 33 for 2 yards (22-G.Stone; 49-B.Carter).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 8-S.Diggs (20-D.Turner).
- (1:56) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | -0.20 pts |
| Quick out | -0.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.22 pts |
| Curl route | -1.43 pts |
| Play action | -1.52 pts |
| End-around | -3.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.49 pts |
| Deep post | -6.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.