Buccaneers vs Cardinals — Week 13, 2025
The Buccaneers took over leading 20-17 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 17. Buccaneers won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 21, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 72.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to TB 23 for 2 yards (29-D.Burke; 50-C.Simon).
- (4:10) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson to TB 28 for 5 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 32 for 4 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 3-B.Baker).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 32 for no gain (5-B.Browning; 50-C.Simon).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to TB 32 for no gain (50-C.Simon).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to TB 37 for 5 yards (5-B.Browning).
- (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to ARI 4, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 9 for 5 yards (58-M.Watts; 32-J.Hayes).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-8.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.39 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.00 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| QB keep | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Curl route | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -3.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.07 pts |
| Deep post | -8.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.