Eagles vs Cowboys — Week 1, 2025
The Eagles took over leading 24-20 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20. Eagles won 24-20 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 24, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 78.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 24 for no gain (95-K.Clark; 54-S.Williams).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left end pushed ob at PHI 27 for 3 yards (54-S.Williams).
- (3:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 2-J.Dotson to PHI 31 for 4 yards (26-D.Bland).
- (3:09) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick out | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.62 pts |
| QB keep | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Play action | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Curl route | -1.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.76 pts |
| End-around | -3.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.42 pts |
| Deep post | -6.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.