Cowboys vs Commanders — Week 17, 2025
The Cowboys took over leading 30-23 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 1 timeout in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 30, Commanders 23. Cowboys won 30-23 — the drive time expired.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 27, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.3% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 95.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) 43-M.Davis up the middle to DAL 33 for 6 yards (3-W.Harris).
- (1:59) 43-M.Davis left guard to DAL 36 for 3 yards (58-J.Magee; 39-J.Reaves).
- (1:53) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to WAS 43 for 21 yards (4-F.Luvu).
- (1:42) 43-M.Davis up the middle to WAS 39 for 4 yards (3-W.Harris).
- (1:38) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to WAS 35 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
- (:54) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to WAS 34 for 1 yard (3-W.Harris).
- (:10) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to WAS 31 for 3 yards (96-J.Holmes; 54-B.Wagner).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.44 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
| Play action | -2.76 pts |
| Curl route | -3.20 pts |
| End-around | -5.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.19 pts |
| Deep post | -8.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.17 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.