Eagles vs Vikings — Week 7, 2025
The Eagles took over leading 28-22 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 28, Vikings 22. Eagles won 28-22 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 43, 1:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.3% for Eagles. Our model starts at 95.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 44 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown.
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown to MIN 11 for 45 yards (7-B.Murphy; 2-I.Rodgers).
- (1:36) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley up the middle to MIN 14 for -3 yards (50-L.Rodriguez).
- (1:33) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley up the middle to MIN 14 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 97-J.Hargrave).
- (:47) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to MIN 19 for -5 yards (58-J.Greenard).
- (:02) 1-J.Hurts kneels to MIN 29 for -5 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.89 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Play action | -2.89 pts |
| Curl route | -3.25 pts |
| End-around | -5.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.34 pts |
| Deep post | -9.10 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.