Dolphins vs Jets — Week 4, 2025
The Dolphins took over leading 27-21 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at the Jets 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 27, Jets 21. Dolphins won 27-21 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 96.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 45 for no gain (94-T.Baron; 95-Q.Williams).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle to NYJ 42 for 3 yards (97-H.Phillips).
- (:58) 31-O.Gordon left guard to NYJ 45 for -3 yards (95-Q.Williams).
- (:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 1, impetus ends at NYJ 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-53-C.Goode.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.78 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.78 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.99 pts |
| Curl route | -3.38 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.45 pts |
| Deep post | -9.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.