Ravens vs Bills — Week 1, 2025
The Ravens took over leading 40-32 with 3:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 40, Bills 41. Bills won 41-40 — the drive turnover.
Ravens ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 28, 3:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 94.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end to BAL 41 for 13 yards (24-C.Bishop).
- (3:10) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 38 for -3 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), touched at BAL 32, RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BAL 30.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.74 pts |
| Quick out | -1.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -2.78 pts |
| Curl route | -3.23 pts |
| End-around | -5.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.19 pts |
| Deep post | -8.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.