Eagles vs Lions — Week 11, 2025
The Eagles took over leading 16-9 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 16, Lions 9. Eagles won 16-9 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 1:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.2% for Eagles. Our model starts at 96.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 40 for 5 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin; 34-A.Anzalone).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 42 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard to PHI 45 for no gain (98-D.Reader; 91-T.Williams).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 47 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell; 98-D.Reader).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to DET 45 for 8 yards (46-J.Campbell).
- (:12) 1-J.Hurts kneels to DET 46 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.88 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.76 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.52 pts |
| QB keep | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -3.32 pts |
| End-around | -5.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.31 pts |
| Deep post | -9.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.