Titans vs Browns — Week 14, 2025
The Titans took over leading 31-23 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Titans 31, Browns 29. Titans won 31-29 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.3% for Titans. Our model starts at 93.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) 20-T.Pollard right guard to TEN 35 for no gain (9-G.Delpit; 49-C.Schwesinger).
- (3:44) 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard left guard to TEN 37 for 2 yards (93-S.Harris; 30-D.Bush).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left guard to TEN 35 for -2 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (2:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 20 for 5 yards (52-J.Williams).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -2.74 pts |
| Curl route | -3.18 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.13 pts |
| Deep post | -8.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.05 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.