Bears vs 49ers — Week 17, 2025
The Bears took over trailing 42-38 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 38, 49ers 42. 49ers won 42-38 — the drive time expired.
Bears ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 2:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.0% for Bears. Our model starts at 26.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to CHI 40 for 5 yards (93-K.Davis).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland (95-A.Collins).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift to SF 49 for 6 yards (26-C.Lucas).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end pushed ob at SF 45 for 4 yards (53-D.Winters).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Loveland.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Kmet.
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to SF 31 for 14 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden to SF 26 for 5 yards (48-T.Bethune).
- (:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Duvernay.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 10-L.Burden.
- (:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (53-D.Winters).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.93 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Deep post | +0.98 pts |
| Play action | +0.93 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.