Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 16, 2025
The Panthers took over tied at 20 with 4:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20. Panthers won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 27, 4:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.4% for Panthers. Our model starts at 55.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 33 for 6 yards (21-B.Morrison) [23-T.Smith].
- (4:03) 9-B.Young pass short left to 5-R.Dowdle to CAR 33 for no gain (90-L.Hall).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at TB 33 for 34 yards (21-B.Morrison). Penalty on TB-21-B.Morrison, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle left end to TB 33 for no gain (23-T.Smith; 8-S.Dennis).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 30 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith). TB-5-H.Reddick was injured during the play.
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left.
- (2:24) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.16 pts |
| Curl route | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| Play action | -1.84 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.06 pts |
| Deep post | -4.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.