Jaguars vs Texans — Week 3, 2025
The Jaguars took over tied at 10 with 3:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 17, Texans 10. Jaguars won 17-10 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 17, 3:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.5% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 51.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Thomas.
- (3:44) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to JAX 21 for 4 yards (51-W.Anderson). HOU-51-W.Anderson was injured during the play.
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to JAX 31 for 10 yards (11-T.Smith).
- (2:28) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to JAX 38 for 7 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o; 0-A.Al-Shaair).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right tackle to JAX 44 for 6 yards (2-C.Bullock; 0-A.Al-Shaair). ** Injury Update: HOU-51-W.Anderson has returned to the game.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at HOU 10 for 46 yards (4-K.Lassiter).
- (1:52) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.21 pts |
| QB keep | +0.04 pts |
| Curl route | +0.02 pts |
| Quick out | -0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.55 pts |
| Play action | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.78 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.16 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Inside run | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.40 pts |
| Deep post | -2.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.