Lions vs Steelers — Week 16, 2025
The Lions took over trailing 29-24 with 2:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 24, Steelers 29. Steelers won 29-24 — the drive time expired.
Lions ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 27, 2:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.9% for Lions. Our model starts at 15.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to DET 24 for -3 yards (5-J.Ramsey, 97-Ca.Heyward).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 84-S.Zylstra.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 84-S.Zylstra to DET 35 for 11 yards (33-J.Sawyer). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle.
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 12 for 24 yards (41-P.Wilson).
- (:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 18-I.TeSlaa.
- (:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa to PIT 1 for 11 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to PIT 9 for 7 yards (21-C.Clark).
- (:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Williams.
- (:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa (21-C.Clark).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.48 pts |
| Deep post | +1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.84 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Spike it | -1.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.