Panthers vs Cardinals — Week 2, 2025
The Panthers took over trailing 27-22 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 22, Cardinals 27. Cardinals won 27-22 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.7% for Panthers. Our model starts at 22.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan (29-D.Burke). ** Injury Update: ARI-3-B.Baker has returned to the game.
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 17-X.Legette (55-D.Stills).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 87-B.Tremayne [5-B.Browning].
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 38 for 3 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CAR-9-B.Young, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33.
- (:49) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 13-H.Renfrow.
- (:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Tremayne (13-K.Clark).
- (:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at ARI 46 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.96 pts |
| QB keep | +1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.37 pts |
| Deep post | +1.37 pts |
| Play action | +0.97 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.46 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.