Seahawks vs Rams — Week 11, 2025
The Seahawks took over trailing 21-19 with 1:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 1, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 19, Rams 21. Rams won 21-19 — the drive missed field goal.
Seahawks ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 1, 1:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.9% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 32.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to SEA 5 for 4 yards (2-J.McCollough).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 88-A.Barner (95-P.Ford).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to SEA 14 for 9 yards (14-C.Durant).
- (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Kupp.
- (:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet pushed ob at SEA 18 for 4 yards (3-K.Curl).
- (:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 26 for 8 yards (1-E.Forbes).
- (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at SEA 38 for 12 yards (31-D.Williams).
- (:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (14-C.Durant).
- (:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to LA 43 for 6 yards.
- (:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.25 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-4.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.25 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| Quick out | -1.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.64 pts |
| QB keep | -1.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.19 pts |
| Outside run | -2.45 pts |
| Inside run | -2.46 pts |
| Curl route | -2.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.81 pts |
| Play action | -3.45 pts |
| Deep post | -4.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.