Patriots vs Bills — Week 15, 2025
The Patriots took over trailing 35-31 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 31, Bills 35. Bills won 35-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.6% for Patriots. Our model starts at 22.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to NE 22 for 5 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
- (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 22 for 0 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 32-T.Henderson.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (97-J.Bosa).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| QB keep | +0.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.94 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.04 pts |
| Outside run | -1.33 pts |
| Inside run | -1.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.98 pts |
| Spike it | -2.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.