Vikings vs Lions — Week 9, 2025
The Vikings took over leading 27-24 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Lions 24. Vikings won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Vikings ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 23, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.5% for Vikings. Our model starts at 81.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to MIN 27 for 4 yards (54-A.McNeill).
- (1:45) 27-J.Mason up the middle to MIN 28 for 1 yard (6-T.Arnold; 34-A.Anzalone).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to MIN 44 for 16 yards (27-A.Maulet).
- (1:00) 9-J.McCarthy kneels to MIN 43 for -1 yards.
- (:56) 9-J.McCarthy kneels to MIN 41 for -2 yards.
- (:24) 9-J.McCarthy kneels to MIN 40 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.14 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| QB keep | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Play action | -1.06 pts |
| Curl route | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -3.86 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.11 pts |
| Deep post | -5.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.