Falcons vs Panthers — Week 11, 2025
The Falcons took over leading 21-19 with 3:02 left, 1st & 10 at the Panthers 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 27, Panthers 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. In Panthers territory, 3:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 83.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:02) 7-B.Robinson right end to CAR 36 for 3 yards (8-Ja.Horn; 94-A.Robinson).
- (2:57) 7-B.Robinson left tackle to CAR 34 for 2 yards (53-C.Cherelus).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 5-D.London (53-C.Cherelus).
- (2:48) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick out | -0.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| QB keep | -0.57 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Play action | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Curl route | -1.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.85 pts |
| End-around | -4.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.58 pts |
| Deep post | -6.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.49 pts |
| Field goal | -7.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.