Rams vs Seahawks — Week 11, 2025
The Rams took over leading 21-19 with 2:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 21, Seahawks 19. Rams won 21-19 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 31, 2:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.0% for Rams. Our model starts at 76.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:17) 12-P.Nacua left end to LA 49 for 18 yards (8-C.Bryant; 27-T.Woolen).
- (2:09) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 49 for no gain (42-D.Thomas).
- (2:00) 12-P.Nacua right end to LA 49 for no gain (8-C.Bryant).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams.
- (1:50) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to SEA 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| QB keep | +0.03 pts |
| Outside run | +0.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Play action | -0.55 pts |
| Curl route | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.41 pts |
| End-around | -3.44 pts |
| Deep post | -4.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.