Ravens vs Patriots — Week 16, 2025
The Ravens took over trailing 28-24 with 2:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 24, Patriots 28. Patriots won 28-24 — the drive turnover.
Ravens ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 32, 2:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.1% for Ravens. Our model starts at 25.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 26-R.Ali to BAL 27 for -5 yards (7-C.Davis). NE-7-C.Davis was injured during the play.
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (44-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (44-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at BAL 36.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.95 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.40 pts |
| QB keep | +1.24 pts |
| Deep post | +1.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.95 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.34 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Spike it | -2.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.