Giants vs Vikings — Week 16, 2025
The Giants took over trailing 16-13 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Giants 13, Vikings 16. Vikings won 16-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 34, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.2% for Giants. Our model starts at 35.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NYG 35 for 1 yard (93-J.Allen; 61-J.Redmond).
- (3:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 18-D.Slayton.
- (3:20) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NYG 45 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman).
- (2:50) (No Huddle) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NYG 47 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (61-J.Redmond).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Quick out | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep post | -0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.