Bears vs Commanders — Week 6, 2025
The Bears took over trailing 24-22 with 3:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 44, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Bears 25, Commanders 24. Bears won 25-24 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 44, 3:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 47.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:07) 4-D.Swift up the middle to CHI 46 for 2 yards (94-D.Payne).
- (2:31) 4-D.Swift right guard to CHI 49 for 3 yards (94-D.Payne; 52-P.Smith).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to WAS 45 for 6 yards (4-F.Luvu).
- (1:31) 4-D.Swift right guard to WAS 41 for 4 yards (24-V.Miller).
- (1:27) 4-D.Swift right end to WAS 31 for 10 yards (39-J.Reaves).
- (1:22) 18-C.Williams sacked at WAS 33 for -2 yards (39-J.Reaves).
- (1:14) 4-D.Swift right end to WAS 18 for 15 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (:31) 18-C.Williams kneels to WAS 20 for -2 yards.
- (:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.44 pts |
| Curl route | +1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.30 pts |
| Deep post | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.