Bears vs Packers — Week 16, 2025
The Bears took over trailing 16-9 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 16, Packers 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.5% for Bears. Our model starts at 11.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to 50 for 3 yards (56-E.Cooper).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland to GB 40 for 10 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 7-Q.Walker).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 4-D.Swift to GB 32 for 8 yards (21-N.Hobbs; 7-Q.Walker).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 12 for 20 yards (24-C.Valentine) [91-W.Brinson].
- (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland ran ob at GB 6 for 6 yards.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 14-O.Zaccheaus.
- (:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland [52-R.Gary].
- (:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.27 pts |
| Curl route | +1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.89 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.