Browns vs Bills — Week 16, 2025
The Browns took over trailing 23-20 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Browns 20, Bills 23. Bills won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 12, 2:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 28.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 83-M.Corley pushed ob at CLE 23 for 11 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (2:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 15 for -8 yards (sack split by 50-G.Rousseau and 21-J.Poyer).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right [50-G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on CLE-12-S.Sanders, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 15.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Jeudy.
- (1:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to BUF 48, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Shakir to CLE 49 for 3 yards (28-T.Avery).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.36 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Deep post | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.90 pts |
| Play action | -1.06 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.50 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Outside run | -2.25 pts |
| Inside run | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.