Falcons vs Cardinals — Week 16, 2025
The Falcons took over leading 26-19 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 26, Cardinals 19. Falcons won 26-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 91.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to ATL 35 for no gain (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 94-D.Tomlinson).
- (3:56) 18-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-D.Mooney to ARI 48 for 17 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left end to ARI 46 for 2 yards (50-C.Simon; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to ARI 40 for 6 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 27-A.Davis-Gaither).
- (2:18) 7-B.Robinson left tackle to ARI 39 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins).
- (2:14) 69-J.Nelson reported in as eligible. 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 39 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson; 56-D.Robinson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -2.52 pts |
| Curl route | -2.93 pts |
| End-around | -4.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.85 pts |
| Deep post | -8.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.