Bills vs Bengals — Week 14, 2025
The Bills took over leading 39-34 with 2:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Bills 39, Bengals 34. Bills won 39-34 — the drive time expired.
Bills ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 2:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 90.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:07) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 33 for 3 yards (90-K.Jenkins).
- (2:00) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 25 for -8 yards (22-G.Stone).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to BUF 42 for 17 yards (44-D.Knight).
- (1:06) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 41 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 40 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.96 pts |
| QB keep | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Play action | -2.13 pts |
| Curl route | -2.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.62 pts |
| End-around | -4.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.46 pts |
| Deep post | -7.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.