Packers vs Browns — Week 3, 2025
The Packers took over leading 10-3 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Packers 10, Browns 13. Browns won 13-10 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 18, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.0% for Packers. Our model starts at 91.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) 0-M.Golden left end to GB 22 for 4 yards (95-M.Garrett; 21-D.Ward).
- (3:25) 0-M.Golden right end to GB 25 for 3 yards (17-J.Baker).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 9-G.Delpit at GB 29. 9-G.Delpit pushed ob at GB 4 for 25 yards (75-S.Rhyan).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.34 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -2.57 pts |
| Curl route | -2.98 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.90 pts |
| Deep post | -8.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.