Giants vs Commanders — Week 15, 2025
The Giants took over trailing 29-21 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Commanders 29. Commanders won 29-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Near midfield, 2:38 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 9.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) 29-T.Tracy left end to WAS 48 for 3 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart scrambles up the middle to WAS 40 for 8 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep middle to 17-W.Robinson [24-V.Miller].
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at WAS 38 for 2 yards (34-A.Hamilton).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Slayton (34-A.Hamilton).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep left to 17-W.Robinson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.36 pts |
| Curl route | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.54 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -1.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.