Titans vs Broncos — Week 1, 2025
The Titans took over trailing 20-12 with 0:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Titans 12, Broncos 20. Broncos won 20-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 36, 0:59 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.1% for Titans. Our model starts at 4.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.
- (:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley [15-N.Bonitto].
- (:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo.
- (:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 25 for -11 yards (29-J.McMillian). FUMBLES (29-J.McMillian) [29-J.McMillian], RECOVERED by DEN-23-J.Barron at TEN 34.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.72 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| Curl route | +0.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.30 pts |
| QB keep | +0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.17 pts |
| Spike it | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.