Vikings vs Ravens — Week 10, 2025
The Vikings took over trailing 27-19 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 19, Ravens 27. Ravens won 27-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 8, 1:44 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 2.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 3.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Jefferson.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles right end to MIN 34 for 26 yards (12-A.Gilman).
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 38 for 4 yards (38-K.Martin) [45-M.Green].
- (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Nailor [41-D.Jones].
- (:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles left tackle to MIN 40 for 7 yards (38-K.Martin).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 33-A.Jones [45-M.Green].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.03 pts), and the weakest was Outside run (-0.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.03 pts |
| Curl route | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.35 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.35 pts |
| Quick out | -0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB keep | -0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| Play action | -0.44 pts |
| Spike it | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.73 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.