Commanders vs Giants — Week 15, 2025
The Commanders took over leading 29-21 with 3:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 29, Giants 21. Commanders won 29-21 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 14, 3:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.4% for Commanders. Our model starts at 93.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:39) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to WAS 25 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland).
- (3:33) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 25 for no gain (27-T.Nubin; 95-R.Robertson-Harris).
- (2:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 82-B.Sinnott to NYG 39 for 36 yards (8-J.Holland).
- (2:42) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 26-J.McNichols left tackle to NYG 46 for -7 yards (27-T.Nubin, 51-A.Carter). FUMBLES (51-A.Carter), RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at NYG 48. 51-A.Carter to NYG 42 for -6 yards. Lateral to 21-P.Adebo to WAS 40 for 18 yards. Lateral to 8-J.Holland to WAS 29 for 11 yards (87-J.Bates; 76-S.Cosmi). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 26-J.McNichols left tackle to NYG 46 for -7 yards (27-T.Nubin, 51-A.Carter). FUMBLES (51-A.Carter), RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at NYG 48. 51-A.Carter to NYG 49 for 1 yard (26-J.McNichols).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.96 pts |
| Quick out | -1.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.62 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Curl route | -3.35 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.44 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.33 pts |
| Deep post | -8.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.