Patriots vs Buccaneers — Week 10, 2025
The Patriots took over leading 21-16 with 1:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 28, Buccaneers 23. Patriots won 28-23 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 1:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.3% for Patriots. Our model starts at 92.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson right tackle to NE 31 for 1 yard (54-L.David).
- (1:43) 32-T.Henderson left end for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.10 pts |
| QB keep | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.31 pts |
| Curl route | -2.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.81 pts |
| End-around | -4.86 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.68 pts |
| Deep post | -8.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.