Bills vs Dolphins — Week 3, 2025
The Bills took over leading 28-21 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bills 31, Dolphins 21. Bills won 31-21 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 41, 3:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.4% for Bills. Our model starts at 95.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 35 for 4 yards (15-Ja.Phillips).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 18-E.Moore to MIA 35 for 30 yards (20-J.Brooks).
- (2:00) 4-J.Cook left tackle to MIA 32 for 3 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
- (1:56) 4-J.Cook left tackle to MIA 32 for no gain (92-Z.Sieler).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left tackle to MIA 30 for 2 yards (15-Ja.Phillips).
- (:27) 15-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| QB keep | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -2.78 pts |
| Curl route | -3.23 pts |
| End-around | -5.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.21 pts |
| Deep post | -8.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.17 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.