Ravens vs Vikings — Week 10, 2025
The Ravens took over leading 27-19 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 27, Vikings 19. Ravens won 27-19 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 17, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.8% for Ravens. Our model starts at 94.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to BAL 23 for 6 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 26 for 3 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (3:09) 42-P.Ricard up the middle to BAL 29 for 3 yards (97-J.Hargrave).
- (3:04) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 29 for no gain (51-B.Cashman).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at BAL 24, recovered by BAL-4-Z.Flowers at BAL 25. 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 35 for 10 yards (55-E.Wilson).
- (2:00) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar (43-A.Van Ginkel).
- (1:55) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 4-M.Price to MIN 27 for 12 yards (35-J.Hummel). PENALTY on MIN-6-D.McGlothern, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at MIN 15.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.83 pts |
| Quick out | -1.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.54 pts |
| QB keep | -1.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -2.85 pts |
| Curl route | -3.30 pts |
| End-around | -5.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.24 pts |
| Deep post | -8.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.