Rams vs Lions — Week 15, 2025
The Rams took over leading 41-34 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Rams 41, Lions 34. Rams won 41-34 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.3% for Rams. Our model starts at 95.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 41 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell). ** Injury Update: DET-36-E.Hallett has returned to the game. ** Injury Update: LA-12-P.Nacua has returned to the game.
- (2:37) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 47 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell).
- (2:00) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 49 for 2 yards (55-D.Barnes; 34-A.Anzalone).
- (1:55) 23-K.Williams right tackle to DET 49 for 2 yards (36-E.Hallett; 98-D.Reader).
- (1:10) 12-P.Nacua left end to DET 47 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell; 29-A.Maddox).
- (:23) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.03 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| QB keep | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.21 pts |
| End-around | -5.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.20 pts |
| Deep post | -8.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.