Jets vs Browns — Week 10, 2025
The Jets took over leading 27-20 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Jets 27, Browns 20. Jets won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Jets ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 33, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.2% for Jets. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 45 for 12 yards (33-R.Hickman).
- (2:06) 20-B.Hall left end to NYJ 48 for 3 yards (9-G.Delpit).
- (2:00) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 20-B.Hall left guard to NYJ 39 for -9 yards (17-J.Baker).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 20-B.Hall right tackle to NYJ 47 for 3 yards (43-M.Diabate; 94-M.Graham).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall up the middle to CLE 49 for 4 yards (94-M.Graham).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall right tackle to NYJ 49 for -2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger, 30-D.Bush).
- (:58) 7-J.Fields kneels to CLE 47 for -1 yards.
- (:21) 7-J.Fields kneels to CLE 48 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -2.76 pts |
| Curl route | -3.20 pts |
| End-around | -5.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.18 pts |
| Deep post | -8.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.14 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.