Lions vs Cowboys — Week 14, 2025
The Lions took over leading 37-30 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Lions 44, Cowboys 30. Lions won 44-30 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.9% for Lions. Our model starts at 94.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to 50 for 1 yard (54-S.Williams; 92-Q.Williams).
- (2:50) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to DAL 13 for 37 yards (34-S.Revel). Dallas challenged the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:25) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.46 pts |
| QB keep | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.21 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.18 pts |
| Deep post | -8.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.