Jets vs Panthers — Week 7, 2025
The Jets took over trailing 13-6 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Jets 6, Panthers 13. Panthers won 13-6 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 28, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.3% for Jets. Our model starts at 14.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor sacked at NYJ 28 for 0 yards (95-D.Brown).
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 40. 8-Ja.Horn to CAR 40 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.11 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.03 pts |
| Spike it | -1.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.