Cardinals vs Seahawks — Week 4, 2025
The Cardinals took over trailing 20-13 with 3:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 20, Seahawks 23. Seahawks won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Cardinals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 43, 3:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 14.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-E.Demercado pushed ob at ARI 49 for 6 yards (42-D.Thomas).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (29-J.Jobe).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.McBride (21-D.Witherspoon).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 46 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).
- (2:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-E.Demercado right end to SEA 38 for 8 yards (20-J.Love).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SEA 45 for -7 yards (42-D.Thomas).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-G.Dortch to SEA 30 for 15 yards (20-J.Love).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-M.Harrison pushed ob at SEA 25 for 5 yards (7-U.Nwosu).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride.
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison to SEA 7 for 18 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 31-E.Demercado up the middle to SEA 7 for no gain (21-D.Witherspoon; 58-D.Hall).
- (:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-E.Demercado for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.17 pts |
| Deep post | +0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.67 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.20 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.