Texans vs Rams — Week 1, 2025
The Texans took over trailing 14-9 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Texans 9, Rams 14. Rams won 14-9 — the drive turnover.
Texans ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 19, 4:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.2% for Texans. Our model starts at 19.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 87-C.Stover pushed ob at HOU 25 for 6 yards (3-K.Curl).
- (4:04) 21-N.Chubb left guard to HOU 35 for 10 yards (3-K.Curl; 26-K.Kinchens).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 21-N.Chubb up the middle to HOU 44 for 9 yards (55-B.Fiske).
- (2:53) 21-N.Chubb left guard to HOU 45 for 1 yard (3-K.Curl; 48-O.Speights).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 44 for 4 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).
- (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Schultz (10-J.Stewart).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale pushed ob at LA 25 for 16 yards (3-K.Curl) [53-N.Landman].
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Deep post | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| QB keep | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.10 pts |
| Quick out | +0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Outside run | -1.02 pts |
| Inside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Spike it | -1.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.